Time Machine: Box Office Predictions for Summer 2013

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Now that the summer 2012 season is over I thought it would be a fun idea to make some predictions for how next year would pan out. I'll come back to this post this time next year and see how good my powers of foresight are!

Grading: HIT > PRETTY GOOD > OKAY-ish > NOT GOOD > BOMB

Oz: The Great and Powerful

Sam Raimi (director)

Prediction: OKAY-ish

I don't know, are the Oz books really that popular anymore? Sure there's Wicked on Broadway but that was a clever post-modern reworking of story, this seems too earnest. I can see it doing respectable business but don't think it will be the franchise starter Disney want it to be.

Carrie

Kimberly Pierce (director)

Prediction: BIG HIT

Even though Brian De Palma's 1976 version is considered pretty definitive I can see critics and audiences liking this. Chloe Moretz is a great choice to the play the lead and I'm expecting an equally great performance from Julianne Moore. Also, there's far too few female directors in Hollywood so it's good to see Kimberly Pierce taking the reins on this.

Now You See Me

Louis Leterrier (director)

Prediction: SUPRISE HIT OF THE YEAR

No seriously, I think this will be the sleeper hit of the year. I really do. Sure, it hasn't got any big name cast members but it has got a truly fantastic set-up - a group of magicians pull off bank heists - that I can't believe someone hasn't made it already. As long as Leterrier keeps his directing in check and doesn't make an empty CGI spectacle like Incredible Hulk or Clash of the Titans we should be in for treat.

Jack the Giant Killer

Bryan Singer (director)

Prediction: BOMB

Sorry I can't see this doing well. The story of Jack and the beanstalk really didn't need a gritty “Lord of the Rings” reworking. I don't think Nicholas Hoult has the right charisma to be a full on leading man. Plus, I wish Singer would get back to doing smaller films like The Apt Pupil and The Usual Suspects.

G.I. Joe: Retaliation (now in 3D)

Jon Chu (director)

Prediction: OKAY-ish

Another film that got pushed back from summer 2012 was the GI Joe sequel. It's a shame because I think it probably would have actually put up a decent fight against The Amazing Spider-man. Apparently, the makers have taken the time to convert it into 3D (which makes me less interested) and possibly added some more Channing Tatum (who has had a great 2012).

Evil Dead

Fede Alvarez (director)

Prediction: OKAY-ish

To be honest, I'd far rather an Evil Dead 4 with Bruce Campbell so my judgment is quite clouded on this. It seems so sacrilegious to remake such an important horror milestone. I understand the makers are going for a different feel – new characters, serious tone, drug metaphor – but I think most people will be fairly disinterested in this.

Oblivion

Joseph Kosinski (director)

Prediction: PRETTY GOOD

One of the few films out in summer 2013 that isn't a franchise. I think this will do pretty good business but won't be a runaway hit. Tom Cruise still seems to pull in the crowds (see Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol) and I think Kosinski's a great visualist (perhaps even an heir to Ridley Scott?) who didn't get enough respect for his work on Tron: Legacy.

Iron Man 3

Shane Black (director)

Prediction: PRETTY GOOD

I'm sure Marvel's run of successful movies can't last forever – can it? The Avengers was great but a lot of that was down to Joss Whedon's assured writing and directing. By comparison Shane Black seems a bit of a “wild card”, I don't know how suited he is to the material. Still the Iron Man character has a lot of popularity so it's never going to totally flop.

Star Trek Into Darkness

J. J. Abrams (director)

Prediction: HIT

I'll admit the lack of colon in the title has me worried but the cast seems great. Benedict Cumberbatch (crazy name, crazy guy) is very “in” right now and it's great to see Peter Weller getting some big screen work. My only request is: can we give Anton Yelchin a proper 'mop top' hair cut to play Chekov?

Fast & Furious 6

Justin Lin (director)

Prediction: PRETTY GOOD

I can't see this film topping the surprise success of Fast Five but I still think this will do solid numbers at the box office and they'll make Fast & Furious 7: Mission to Moscow not long after. Vin Diesel seems to be having a great time wringing every last drop of money out of this series and the Riddick movies.

The Hangover Part III

Todd Phillips (director/screenplay)

Prediction: OKAY-ish

I'll admit I've never seen any of The Hangover movies. The central plot just seemed so generic and lazy. Maybe I'll give them a go at some point in the future because I do like Zach Galifianakis' 'Between Two Ferns' series. Anyway despite never seeing them I can tell from the reviews of Part II that audiences are getting a little weary of the concept. Pulling out a sequel so soon after the last one seems like a mistake.

After Earth

M. Night Shyamalan (director)

Prediction: NOT GOOD/BOMB

I'm getting slightly Waterworld vibes off this one – another big budget movie about a post apocalyptic earth. I feel sorry for Shyamalan, he can't seem to catch a break from critics, but I don't think this is going to be his comeback. In fact, I have a weird feeling it might completely bomb and lose a lot of money.

Man of Steel

Zack Snyder (director)

Prediction: BIGGEST HIT OF SUMMER

I think this will likely be the big hit of the summer. Everybody loves Superman and unlike the previous film – Superman Returns – this feels like a brand new exciting take on the character. I loved the Terence Malick-esque trailer and I think Christopher Nolan's influence on the film will be heavily felt.

Monsters University

Dan Scanlon (director)

Prediction: PRETTY GOOD

I kind of wish that Pixar would go back to making just original films but I understand that they've got to go “back to the well” every now and then. At least they've placed the characters in a completely new setting for this one and it hasn't got much competition from other children's films.

World War Z

Marc Forster (director)

Prediction: OKAY-ish

I think everyone is aware that this film has had a troubled production history and they seem to be doing a lot of reshoots at the moment to try and “fix” it. Films like this rarely do well but I think given that zombies are still very much “en vogue” it will pull in decent audiences. However the expense of the reshoots will probably mean it will only just break even.

R.I.P.D.

Robert Schwentke (director)

Prediction: OKAY-ish

Ryan Reynolds seems to have gotten a bit of critical respect back after his 2011 flops (Green Lantern and The Change-Up) so I think this won't completely bomb but I think that audiences unfamiliarity with the comic book it's based on will stop it from doing big business.

The Lone Ranger

Gore Verbinski (director)

Prediction: NOT GOOD/BOMB

I love the concept for this – that Tonto is the hero and the Lone Ranger is a buffoon – but I think audiences are tired of Johnny Depp just doing over-the-top impressions rather than actually acting. Again, I don't think this is a franchise starter for Disney.

Pacific Rim (now in 3D)

Guillermo del Toro (director)

Prediction: SURPRISE BOMB OF THE YEAR

Yep, I think this will be the surprise bomb of the year. I'm sorry, I love Del Toro and I think I'll love this movie – it sounds like a cool riff on Godzilla – but I have a sneaking suspicion that it will flop at the box office and only become a cult classic a few years later. I think audiences will think it sounds too much like Transformers or Battleship.

The Wolverine

James Mangold (director)

Prediction: OKAY-ish

I was really pumped for this when Darren Aronofsky was attached but since he dropped out my interest has cooled. Mangold's a good director (I absolutely love Copland) but I can't see him making anything spectacular with this. Also, the last Wolverine movie was really quite bad movie – I don't think people have forgotten that.

300: Rise of an Empire

Noam Murro (director)

Prediction: NOT GREAT

It's so long since the original film came out (okay, only six years) but I think cinema has moved on from that over-stylised look – even the Spartacus TV show has been cancelled now. People didn't seem that interested in seeing Immortals in 2011 and I think this will do about the same numbers as that or maybe even less.

RED 2

Dean Parisot (director)

Prediction: NOT GREAT

RED was a decent little movie but I think the “old age mercenaries” thing is getting a bit tired now. Expendables 2 showed that there's not much more to be done with the sub-genre. They need to have a really good story to have any chance of making some money on this.

RoboCop

Jose Padilha (director)

Prediction: THIS ONE I GENUINELY CAN'T PREDICT

Again, like Evil Dead, Robocop is a film that's very close to my heart. I'd even suggest that it's my favourite film of all time. I want to say that it will flop but I can't tell if that's just because I don't want it made (seriously, has someone just bought all of Paul Verhoeven's back catalogue – when the Hollow Man remake?). It has got a great cast but I've seen a lot of critically praised foreign director trip up on their first American debut.

What do you guys think?